Irene — Barra de Navidad Tropical Watch

Irene · Tropical Watch

GREEN

All clear — no tropical threat to the Jalisco/Colima coast

19.2°N, 104.68°W · Barra de Navidad, Jalisco · Eastern Pacific basin

Named storms threatening coast	None
NHC EPAC 7-day formation chance	90% (high) · 30% in 48h
Nearest disturbance	Low forming several hundred mi S-SSW of SW Mexico · TD expected early-to-mid next week, tracking WNW well off the coast
Active named systems in basin	None
Threat to Jalisco/Colima coast	None

Irene is secure. No active tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. The offshore SW Mexico low NHC is watching ticked up to 90% formation chance over 7 days (from 70% yesterday; 30% in 48h) — a tropical depression is likely early-to-mid next week. Track guidance is unchanged: it forms several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast and moves west-northwestward, offshore and away from Jalisco/Colima. Three other disturbances (two near/SE of Hawaii, one well SW of Baja) are far west and no factor. No action needed — next runs will track this system closely once it forms and gets a designation, since it's the closest genesis to Irene this season.

Generated Jul 12, 2026 · 4:10 AM (Barra de Navidad local time)
Sources: NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook (latest issuance Jul 11: offshore SW Mexico low, 90% / 7 days, 30% / 48h)

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